北京大学金融工程实验室
“对话投资总监”系列讲座
2023年第九讲：
行为金融学，机器学习与量化投资
主讲人：史帆（致诚卓远量化私募，创始人、投资总监）
主持老师：（北大经院）黎新平
时间：2023年9月25日（周一）19:00-21:30
地点：北京大学经济学院219会议室
主要内容：
本次讲座将讨论行为金融学在量化投资中的应用，其发展、基本原理以及实践， 结合当前机器学习的研究发展，讨论机器学习对量化投资策略研究的影响，以及未来机器学习在量化投资中的机遇。
主讲机构简介：
百亿量化私募致诚卓远投资成立于2014年，专注于以量化投资为主的私募证券投资基金，发行的量化产品主要分为股票阿尔法对冲型和指数加强型。核心投研团队成员均为北京大学毕业并有多年金融或投资从业经历，拥有卓越的计算机编程能力、扎实的数理统计建模功底、丰富的金融学理论知识和实践经验。致诚卓远的投资理念为统计套利，核心在于股票市场未来的运行方式与过去存在某些特点上的相似性，可以用市场过去场景的条件频率近似的替代未来市场的条件概率。
北大经院工作坊第707场
How feedback creates habits: theory and evidence from a field experiment
行为和实验经济学工作坊
主讲人：Lorenz Goette（新加坡国立大学教授）
主持老师：（北大光华）孟涓涓
参与老师：
（北大经院）平新乔、秦雪征、庄晨、曹光宇、陆方文
（北大光华）高彧
（北大现代农学院）刘承芳、罗仁福、候玲玲、王悦
（北大教育学院）杨钋、丁延庆、马莉萍、朱琼
时间：2023年9月26日（周二）13:00-14:30
地点：北京大学光华管理学院2号楼217会议室
主讲人简介：
Lorenz Goette is a professor of economics at the National University of Singapore. He completed his undergraduate and graduate studies at the University of Zurich, and a post-doc at the University of California, Berkeley. Previously, Götte was a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and a professor at the University of Geneva, the University of Lausanne, and the University of Bonn. His research interests are in the field of "economics and psychology", a field that examines systematic departures from the assumptions of the standard economic model. Lorenz Goette's research focuses on applications in labor economics. Current projects examine the extent and consequences of downward nominal wage rigidity, and how departures from full intertemporal maximization can impact labor supply in surprising ways. Lorenz Goette is also interested how social identity shapes organisations, and incentives within organisations. Lorenz Goette has published in the American Economic Review, the Review of Economic Studies, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and Science.
摘要：
We run a field experiment that monitors behavioral responses to real-time feedback during and post-treatment and varies the duration of treatment cycles. We document asymmetry: treatment effects emerge immediately with feedback, neither grow nor wane with continued treatment, and gradually decay after feedback, taking longer to decay the longer the duration of treatment. To study the underlying behavioral mechanism for these dynamics, we extend the traditional consumption-based model of habit formation to incorporate salience and the possibility of state-dependent attention. We structurally estimate the model and find that a dynamic attention-based mechanism best predicts consumption responses to nudges in our context, both in and out of sample. Through counterfactual simulations, we illustrate the importance of identifying the underlying behavioral mechanism by contrasting implications of consumption- and attention-based habit formation when designing nudge interventions for sustained behavioral change.
北大经济史学名家系列讲座
第192讲
近代中国的金融策略和债务（1901-1925）：以镑亏、奥国贷款和金法郎案为中心
主讲人：张志云（上海交通大学历史系教授）
时间：2023年9月26日（周二）18：40-20：40
地点：北京大学经济学院302会议室
主持人：赵一泠（北京大学经济学院经济史学系助理教授）
评论人：
兰日旭（中央财经大学经济学院经济史学系主任、教授）
周建波（北京大学经济学院经济史学系主任、教授）
主讲人简介：
张志云，英国布里斯托大学荣誉资深研究员、日本东京大学特任教授。师从毕可思（Robert Bickers）教授。主要研究中外关系史、帝国史、国际贸易史、地理信息系统等。教授“中国学概论”、“中外关系史”、“帝国视角下的贸易、金融与外交”、“团练、水师与北洋军阀”等课程。著有：《海关中国：政府、外籍专家和华籍关员的三重视角揭开清末“国中之国”的神秘面纱》Government, Imperialism and Nationalism in China: The Maritime Customs Service and its Chinese Staff , The Chinese Journals of L K Little, 1943–54: An Eyewitness Account of War and Revolution, Driven by Debts: Modern China’s Financial Obligations and Strategies, 1895-1938、《日中戦争期における中国海关総税务司と総务科税务司岸本広吉》等。
主办单位：
北京大学经济学院经济史学系
北京大学社会经济史研究所
北京大学外国经济学说研究中心
北大经院工作坊第708场
Identifying Policy Interdependence in Politically Polarized Environments: Evidence from COVID-19 Responses in the U.S.
经院-全健院
“健康与劳动经济学”工作坊
主讲人： 刘璐（上海纽约大学经济系讲师）
主持老师：（北大经院）庄晨
参与老师：
（北大全健院）刘国恩、吕蓓妮、潘聿航、林昊翔、孙宇、杨佳楠
（北大经院）秦雪征、石菊、姚奕、王耀璟、袁野、梁远宁
时间：2023年9月27日（周三）10：00-11：30
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
刘璐，现任New York University Shanghai经济系讲师。2017年博士毕业于香港中文大学经济系，哥伦比亚大学商学院访问学者。主要研究领域为劳动经济学、健康经济学、发展经济学，在Economic Letters, Vaccines等国内外各类期刊发表论文数篇。
摘要：
Policy adoption of geographically and political correlated entities may exhibit interdependence. Models such as policy diffusion and supermodular games are effective tools, but there is less knowledge about policy interdependence in a politically polarized environment. States with the same political affiliation may exhibit "double mutual reinforcement" because of both policy complementarity and political identity, while states with competing political affiliations may exhibit either strategic complementarity or offsetting. Using a random utility model and the COVID-19 policy response data in US 2020 as an example, we show that the policy choices made by one state are strongly influenced by those of others, especially those states with the same political affiliation. We also detect a "tipping behaviour": once certain fraction of states has adopted a policy, that policy becomes so attractive to remaining ones that it can lead to an abrupt change to follow suit.
北大经院工作坊第709场
Guns and Resources: War Extractions and Governance Paradigm Shifts
发展与公共财政工作坊
主讲人：陈硕（复旦大学经济系教授）
主持老师：
（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇；
（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健
时间：2023年9月27日（周三）15:30-17:00
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园345教室
主讲人简介：
陈硕，复旦大学经济系教授，研究兴趣主要集中于发展经济学、政治经济学、经济史及中国经济。陈硕教授的中文成果发表在《经济研究》、《金融研究》、《管理世界》等多个国内权威期刊上，英文成果发表在American Economic Review、American Political Science Review、American Review of Public Administration、American Economic Journal: Applied Economics、Journal of Public Economics等期刊上。曾获得上海市哲学社会科学优秀成果一等奖、“青木昌彦”经济学论文优胜奖及中国青年经济学家奖，荣获中宣部“四个一”人才、上海市“浦江人才”、“社科新人”、“曙光人才”及复旦大学“卓学学者”等称号。
摘要：
How does the state choose between direct and indirect governance when faced with wartime mobilization needs? Using the 70-year Dzungar-Qing War (1688-1758) as an exogenous shock and a difference-in-differences strategy on prefecture-level panel data, we reveal that for the Qing empire, southern regions rich in war-related resources were more likely to shift from local autonomy to direct governance after the war broke out on northwestern borders. The paradigm shifts occurred more in regions where transportation was more convenient, whereas the shifted regions opened more factories, highlighting the demand for strategic resources as an important determinant of governance paradigm shifts.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：初夏
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
