北大经院工作坊第899场
Homelessness (with Ayse Imrohoroglu) 无家可归
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：赵开，美国康涅狄格大学经济系副教授 (终身教职)
主持老师：（北大经院）李博
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、韩晗、李伦
时间：2024年5月28日（周二）10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学经济学院305会议室
主讲人简介：
赵开，美国康涅狄格大学(University of Connecticut)经济系副教授 (终身教职)。目前担任国际经济学期刊International Studies of Economics共同主编及China & World Economy副主编。他曾任美联储访问经济学家，南加大商学院访问教授。赵开博士的主要研究领域为宏观经济学和公共财政，长期关注收入与财富分配问题，及养老保险和医疗保险等社会保障制度对实体经济的影响。他在包括Journal of Monetary Economics，International Economic Review，Review of Economic Dynamics，European Economic Review，Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 和Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization在内的国际一流经济学期刊上发表论文10余篇。
摘要：
This paper examines the effectiveness of several policies in reducing the aggregate share of homeless in a dynamic general equilibrium model. The model economy is calibrated to capture the most at-risk groups and generates a diverse population of homeless with a significant fraction becoming homeless for short spells due to labor market shocks and a smaller fraction experiencing chronic homelessness due to health shocks. Our policy experiments show housing subsidies to be more effective in reducing the aggregate homeless share, mostly by helping those with short spells, than non-housing policies. For the chronically homeless population, a means-tested expansion of disability income proves to be effective. We also find that some policies that result in higher exit rates from homelessness, such as relaxation of borrowing constraints, help the currently homeless population but lead to a larger homeless share at the steady state by increasing the entry rate.
北大经院工作坊第900场
统筹发展和安全
政治经济学工作坊
主讲人：唐琦（北京大学医学人文学院助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）张辉、方敏
时间：2024年5月29日（周三）15：10-18：00
地点：北京大学理科教学楼303教室
主讲人简介：
唐琦，经济学博士，北京大学医学人文学院助理教授，硕士生导师、博士后导师。于《经济研究》《经济科学》《经济学动态》《政治经济学评论》等期刊发表十余篇论文，多篇为《新华文摘》《人大复印报刊资料》转载。曾获北京大学经济学院“百年菁才”优秀毕业生、北京大学优秀科研奖、北京大学青年岗位能手等荣誉。
摘要：
始终保持警醒意识、高效应对突发事件、尽力减少隐藏风险的经验，使中国在国内外复杂局面中创造了经济快速发展和社会长期稳定两大奇迹。中华民族伟大复兴的战略全局和世界百年未有之大变局要求我们继续为发展建立安全保障、为安全打好发展基础。党的二十大报告指出，“我国发展进入战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期，各种‘黑天鹅’、‘灰犀牛’事件随时可能发生。我们必须增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，做到居安思危、未雨绸缪，准备经受风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验。”为此，需要构建内外兼修的新安全格局，进一步贯彻总体国家安全观，有效地甄别经济安全的影响因素，强化经济循环的韧性。同时，加强粮食、能源、产业链等重点领域安全能力建设，完善社会治理，防范化解重大风险，以发展应对风险挑战，巩固社会发展成果。
北大经济史学名家系列讲座
第204讲
比较视野下的中国经济史研究
主讲人：和文凯（香港科技大学社会科学部副教授）
时间：2024年5月29日（周三）19：30-21：00
地点：北京大学经济学院301会议室
主持人：陈皓（北京大学经济学院经济史学系博士生）
评论人：
张百顺（山西师范大学经济与管理学院副教授）
郝煜（北京大学经济学院经济史学系副主任、长聘副教授）
周建波（北京大学经济学院经济史学系主任、教授）
主讲人简介：
和文凯，清华大学学士，美国麻省理工学院政治系博士，现为香港科技大学社会科学部副教授。研究方向为国家形成、比较政治学、历史社会学和比较历史分析。著有Paths toward the Modern Fiscal State: England, Japan and China (Harvard University Press, 2013), Public Interest and State Legitimation: Early Modern England, Japan, and China (Cambridge University Press, 2023)。
主办单位：
北京大学经济学院经济史学系
北京大学社会经济史研究所
北京大学外国经济学说研究中心
北大经院工作坊第901场
Associative Network in Decision Making
微观理论经济学工作坊
主讲人：汤睿（Assistant Professor at HKUST）
主持老师：
（北大经院）吴泽南、石凡奇
（北大国发院）胡岠
参与老师：
（北大经院）胡涛
（北大国发院）汪浩、邢亦青
（北大光华）翁翕、刘烁
时间：2024年5月30日（周四）10:30-12:00
地点：北京大学经济学院302会议室
主讲人简介：
Rui Tang received his PhD in economics from Princeton University and joined HKUST economics department as an assistant professor in 2021. His research interests include decision theory, behavioral economics, microeconomic theory, and health economics. His papers have been published in peer reviewed journals such as Games and Economic Behavior, Journal of Economic Theory, and the Review of Economic Studies.
摘要：
We model associative networks that capture how a decision maker enlarges her consideration set through the mental association between alternatives, and demonstrate how this model serves as a toolbox to understand the impact of mental association on decision making. As a proof of concept, we characterize this model within a random attention framework and demonstrate that all the relevant parameters are uniquely identifiable. Notably, in a novel choice domain where not all observable alternatives are feasible, the presence of infeasible yet observable alternatives can influence the choice frequencies of alternatives through mental association.
北大经院工作坊第902场
Justices of the Peace: Legal Foundations of the Industrial Revolution
经济史工作坊
主讲人：Jonathan Chapman（Associate Professor at the University of Bologna）
主持老师：（北大经院）赵一泠、Mark Hup
参与老师：
（北大经院）郝煜、管汉晖、周建波
（北大光华）颜色、李波
时间：2024年5月30日（周四）17：00-18：30（北京时间）
形式：腾讯会议
会议号：722-654-761
主讲人简介：
Jonathan is an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Bologna. He is an applied microeconomist, with research interests straddling Economic History, Political Economy, and Behavioral Economics. His work in economic history is focused on the development of the British state. His research in behavioral economics focuses on eliciting behavioral preferences in broad populations, as part of the World Econographics Project. He has published in journals such as the Review of Economic Studies, the Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics, the Journal of Economic History, and the Economic History Review.
摘要：
State legal and collective capacity contributed to economic development during the Industrial Revolution. In England and Wales, the Monarchy and Parliament relied on local magistrates, known as Justices of the Peace (JPs), to enforce property rights and administer market regulation. We use new data on JP duties to document the expanding scope of state intervention in the economy after the 1688-9 Glorious Revolution. We find that counties and towns with more JPs around 1700---and hence ability to enforce a range of new laws developed by Parliament---experienced more population growth and economic development over the following 140 years. Plausibly conditional exogenous variation in JPs, driven by historical political factors, suggests that this relationship is causal. Several mechanisms and channels are documented, indicating the wide breadth of JPs' impact on the economy.
北大经院工作坊第903场
Debt rollover policy under low interest rates（低利率下的债务展期政策）
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：苏东灵（上海财经大学经济学院助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）韩晗
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、李博、李伦
时间：2024年5月31日（周五）10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园246教室
主讲人简介：
苏东灵，上海财经大学经济学院助理教授，主要研究方向为宏观经济学与货币经济学。他在波士顿大学获得经济学博士学位，他的研究发表在American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics，Journal of Public Economics和Economic Theory。
摘要：
We study the impacts of temporary/permanent fiscal transfer shocks, financed by a debt rollover policy, in a perpetual youth model with nominal rigidity and r < g. We show that the debt rollover policy is feasible but leads to extremely slow convergence of public debt. Even though financial frictions are quite mild, the debt rollover policy generates a strong wealth effect on aggregate consumption, leading to persistent inflation dynamics both in the short run and in the longer run. A temporary fiscal deficit helps to stimulate the economy in the short run but does so at the cost of long-run stagflation with capital being continuously crowded out. In contrast, a permanent fiscal deficit will create a short-run recession, with persistent disinflation in the longer run. A carefully designed fiscal-monetary policy mix can facilitate transitions in response to permanent shocks, with welfare gains shared equally by all generations.
北大经院工作坊第904场
Access to MTF Cooking Energy Solutions and its Gendered Welfare Effects in Zambia
生态、环境与气候变化经济学工作坊
主讲人：Edwin Muchapondwa（Professor at the University of Cape Town）
时间：2024年5月31日（周五）10:00-12:00
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园249教室
主讲人简介：
Edwin Muchapondwa is an economist specializing in environmental and resource economics. He is a professor at the School of Economics, University of Cape Town, South Africa. His research often focuses on issues such as wildlife conservation, natural resource management, and sustainable development, particularly within the context of African economies. Edwin has contributed to the academic and policy discourse on how economic principles can be applied to address environmental challenges and promote sustainable use of natural resources. He is also affiliated with Luleå University of Technology in Sweden and is a Research Fellow at the Environment for Development (EfD) initiative.
摘要：
The paper estimates the impact of accessing cooking energy solutions on gendered outcomes, including health and time allocation to various household activities in Zambia. The study uses the World Bank/ESMAP multi-tier framework (MTF) dataset on household energy access, which assigns households to tiers (0-5) based on the attributes of their primary cooking energy. Inverse Probability Regression Adjustment (IPWRA) with generalized propensity score is used to estimate the pairwise average treatment effect of household treatment with MTF cooking energy on gendered welfare indicators. The empirical results reveal heterogeneity in welfare indicators across gender and location in Zambia. The results show that transitioning from lower to higher tiers of cooking energy solutions affects men’s and women’s health outcomes and time allocation to various activities differently. Therefore, the empirical results underscore the need to highlight substantial variations in the impact on gender and household location across MTF cooking energy solutions when formulating energy policies in transition economies such as Zambia.
北大经院工作坊第905场
融资期限错配与地方债务风险
发展与公共财政工作坊
主讲人：马光荣（中国人民大学财政金融学院教授）
主持老师：
（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇
（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健
时间：2024年5月31日（周五）11:30-13:00
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园132教室
主讲人简介：
马光荣，中国人民大学财政金融学院教授、副院长，教育部青年长江学者，国家社科基金重大项目首席专家，在《中国社会科学》、《经济研究》、American Economic Review、Journal of Public Economics、European Economic Review等权威期刊发表论文四十余篇。获得教育部高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖、张培刚发展经济学青年学者奖等多项奖励。
摘要：
本文研究债务期限错配引发的到期债务接续压力对地方债务风险的影响。分析发现：地方融资平台到期债务压力的增加显著降低了其新发行债务期限，进一步加剧了投融资期限错配程度；而显性债务到期压力对新发行地方政府债券期限则无此影响。区分融资平台有息负债中的到期债务和远期债务发现，远期的债务负担并不会对当前融资期限产生负面影响。对期限溢价的分析显示，融资平台到期债务压力增加会导致较长期债务的利差相比较短期债务上升更多，即强化了正向期限溢价。这些发现表明，当下中国地方债务风险主要是城投平台期限错配带来的流动性风险，而这一问题又根植于融资平台的公益性、长周期投资与非政府信用融资之间的错配。进一步研究发现，债务置换不仅有助于降低融资平台到期债务压力对债务发行期限的负向作用，还能直接拉长平台债务期限，从而显著降低地方债务接续的流动性风险。本文揭示了地方债务流动性风险的成因和影响，为正确认识和化解当前地方债务风险提供了新的启示。
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：无隅
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
